June Import Prices Rise 0.3%, Defying Deflation Hopes
US import prices climbed 0.3% in June, far above the -0.7% forecast, as year-over-year gains hit a nearly two-year high.
If you were hoping inflation was quietly packing its bags and heading out the door, June's import price data has some bad news for you. US import prices rose 0.3% last month, when economists had expected a drop of 0.7% — a pretty significant miss that suggests price pressures haven't gotten the memo about cooling down.
To put that year-over-year number in perspective: import prices are up 7.1% compared to a year ago, the steepest annual gain since August 2022. That's the kind of figure that tends to make Fed officials shift uncomfortably in their seats, especially when they're trying to convince markets that inflation is well on its way back to the 2% target.
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On the export side, prices fell 0.6% in June, slightly worse than the -0.4% expected, which at least hints that US goods are getting a little cheaper for overseas buyers. But that silver lining is overshadowed by what's happening on the import side — the stuff Americans are buying from abroad is getting more expensive, not less.
Adding fuel to the fire (quite literally), oil prices were running hot at the same time this data dropped. Brent crude pushed up to around $86.20 a barrel while WTI hovered near $81 — elevated energy costs being one of the key reasons import prices can swing higher in a hurry. This report lands right after CPI and PPI data, and the contrast is notable: where those readings offered some relief, import prices are swinging the other way, reminding everyone that the inflation fight isn't a done deal.
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